Carney's Liberals defy 12.5% odds in stunning Canadian election turnaround
Betting data from BetVictor Canada shows the Liberal Party overcame long odds to retain power, in a market swing linked to shifting political sentiment around US-Canada relations.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has secured victory in the Canadian election despite having been priced at just a 12.5% chance of success when betting markets first opened, according to figures released by BetVictor Canada.
The operator’s data shows the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were initially strong favourites when markets opened last November, priced at 1/7 (-700). Their position strengthened further in January, when they were quoted as short as 1/20 (-2000), reflecting an implied 95.2% probability of winning.
The Liberals, by contrast, opened at 7/1 (+700), equivalent to a 12.5% chance of success. BetVictor Canada said sentiment began to shift in February, coinciding with renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump regarding Canadian sovereignty.
Market swing
By April, the picture had reversed sharply, with Carney’s Liberals moving into favouritism at 4/11 (-275), while the Conservatives drifted to 7/4 (+175).
The operator reported that the shift generated significant betting activity, with 73.53% of all wagers placed in its outright market backing either a Conservative majority or minority government.
Operator comment
Sam Boswell, spokesperson for BetVictor Canada, said few elections had produced as dramatic a reversal as this one. Boswell noted that the Liberals were 7/1 outsiders at the point former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, which led to Carney’s appointment and the calling of a snap election.
According to Boswell, growing public unease over comments made by Trump helped drive the Liberals into favourite status by April, ultimately resulting in what BetVictor Canada described as a shock defeat for the Conservatives, despite the bulk of outright market bets having backed a Poilievre-led win.